Winter 2025/26 was one for the record books, in a good way. The Alps, the Pyrenees and even Eastern Europe all saw some of the most consistent snowfall right up until the end of the season. But for anyone watching the skies for winter 2026/27, you’re probably already aware that this is an El Niño year, which means changes are afoot.
So what does this mean?
Unlike North America, where El Niño’s impacts follow a more predictable path, Europe’s relationship with this climate giant is more complicated.
Lets dig in…
A “Super El Niño” is Brewing
Right now, in summer 2026, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the UK Met Office have issued joint updates warning that this is not a run-of-the-mill climate cycle. Sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific have surged aggressively since the spring, easily breaking past the critical thresholds.
Read the UK Met Office El Niño report.
Long-range dynamic modeling systems from three different continents; the North American CFSv2, the European ECMWF, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, are all coming to the same conclusions.
We’re already seeing a vert high probability that this setup will evolve into a “Super El Niño,” where ocean temperature anomalies exceed plus 2 degrees Celsius (possibly reaching 3 degrees C). Experts warn this could match or surpass the record-shattering climate disruptions of 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, potentially positioning 2027 to become the hottest calendar year in recorded human history.
But…there is a secondary atmospheric wildcard at play. Climate analysts at Severe Weather Europe have noted a strong, descending westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (known as a West QBO), a belt of high-altitude winds circling the equator in the stratosphere. When a Super El Niño teams up with a West QBO, it traditionally strengthens the low-pressure system over Northern Europe, amplifying a strong, mild, and moist Atlantic airflow directly across the European continent.
This offers a mixed bag of potential scenarios. First up, we could see more moisture and more cold temperatures, especially at altitude across Europe. But, we could also see inconsistencies in temperatures, especially at resort level, meaning less of a snowpack in resort and more mild temperatures and rain.
The History: What Past El Niño Years Teach Us
When looking back at past strong El Niño winters, Europe shows a distinct split personality.
In the past, Western and Central Europe typically face an active, stormy Atlantic jet stream. This brings a high volume of precipitation, but it comes with a major catch: background warmth. During the 2015/2016 season, the Alps saw a particularly poor winter season, with many places not seeing good snow cover until February (and even then, not much).
Rain repeatedly washed out early-season snow packs in valley floors, while high-altitude peaks above 2,500 meters were absolutely buried in heavy, wet snow.
On the flip, Scandinavia often experiences the exact opposite behavior. Strong El Niño patterns tend to weaken the typical atmospheric protections around the Arctic, leaving the door wide open for cold polar air to sink southward into northern latitudes. Countries like Norway and Sweden often register significantly colder, more stable winters during these periods.
In Eastern Europe, historical data shows highly volatile swings. The region acts as a geographical transition zone, frequently caught in a tug-of-war between mild Atlantic westerlies and sudden, brutal Siberian cold blasts driven by high-pressure blocking systems.
The Regional Projections: Alps, Scandinavia, and Eastern Europe
As long-range computer simulations fine-tune their calculations for the coming winter, a clearer picture is starting to emerge for Europe’s core geographic zones.
The European Alps: A Tale of Altitude and Microclimates
For the French, Swiss, Italian, and Austrian Alps, the incoming seasonal models predict a mixed bag. Because of the overwhelming global warmth signal supercharged by El Niño, the overarching theme will be a higher-than-average snowline.
Early winter (November and December) is likely to be sluggish and highly volatile. Low-lying resort villages and lower valleys face an elevated risk of warm-air intrusions, meaning rain could frequently threaten early-season ground cover. Basically, stay high altitude.
As usual though, the mid-winter tells a potentially more positive story. From January through March, the intense Pacific energy is projected to stabilise atmospheric wave tracks, delivering consistent, powerful storm cycles across Central Europe. Experts agree that altitude will be the ultimate insurance policy.
High-altitude ski domains, north-facing slopes, and resorts with glacier access, such as Val Thorens, Tignes, and Val d’Isère in France, Zermatt in Switzerland, and Ischgl or Obergurgl in Austria, are expected to thrive, capturing massive snowfall from moisture-rich Atlantic storms while staying safely insulated above the warm valley air.
Scandinavia: The Winter Stronghold
While central Europe wrestles with rising snowlines, Scandinavia is likely to be the winner of the coming winter season.
Long-range atmospheric modeling reveals a consistent high-pressure anomaly projected to set up near Scandinavia late in the autumn. This structural layout acts as a shield against warm Atlantic air, instead pulling down crisp, frigid airflow from the polar basin.
Forecasters predict that Norway, Sweden, and Finland will see below-normal temperatures and highly reliable, early-season snowpacks. For skiers and snowboarders seeking absolute early-booking confidence for November and December, the Nordic countries are currently the safest bet on the map.
Eastern Europe: High Volatility and Late-Season Surprises
Eastern Europe, including Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and the Balkan mountains, can be unpredictable at the best of times. But this season is very likely to be a bit of a damp squib.
Because the region will be caught between the high-pressure block over Scandinavia and the active Atlantic storm track hitting the west, seasonal models predict extreme volatility.
Predictions for the early half of the winter is tilting milder and wetter. In short, Bulgaria and other Central and Eastern European ski areas could see a late start and disappointing snowfall in general.
However, there is a big but… Many meteorologists emphasise that El Niño winters feature a higher statistical likelihood of a “Polar Vortex collapse” or a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event later in the season. If the polar vortex breaks down in January or February, Eastern Europe could easily see sudden, dramatic shifts to sub-zero temperatures, bringing intense, localized blizzard conditions.
Where To Ski This Coming Season (2026/27)
We have an unprecedented and historic climate event brewing in the Pacific. This does mean we’re heading into uncharted territory when it comes to winter – so basically booking a winter holiday needs a strategic approach. Ski travel analysts and long-range forecasters are offering a few golden rules to help travellers outsmart the weather:
- Go High: Focus on destinations that feature extensive terrain located above 1,800 to 2,000 meters. At these elevations, even a slightly warmer-than-average winter will still result in decent snowfall.
- Look North: Destinations with highly protected, north-facing sectors usually successfully shield their snow cover from afternoon sun exposure and mild temperature spikes.
- Think Nordic: If you’re planning an early-season trip in December, bypass the low-altitude Alpine valleys and head north to Scandinavia, where cold Arctic air will hold a much tighter grip.
- Snowmaking Could be the Difference Check that your chosen resort features modern snowmaking infrastructure. This technology acts as a vital buffer to preserve ground cover during temporary warm spells.
If you’re looking for the best options this winter, our ski resort picker will help you find the right ski resort for you.
While a Super El Niño creates a range of potentially challenging and erratic conditions (especially for lower-lying destinations), it also brings immense moisture that could translate into epic, historic powder days. This is more likely the higher you go. Keep your eyes on the high peaks, track the shifting weather models, and plan your winter escape with elevation in mind.
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